I've just read an excellent article in IEEE Spectrum magazine on how the pace of innovation in electronics brings its fair share of problems as well as solutions.
Technology obsolescence is a problem that affects everyone — every time I turn on my 4-year-old home PC, I think about buying a new and faster one. But in some industries, especially those where the technology is expected to last a long time, or be ultra reliable, the problem is particularly acute. Telecommunications provides the author with some fine examples.
- "Consider one major telecommunications company (which wishes to remain unnamed for competitive reasons) that typically buys enough parts to fulfill its anticipated lifetime needs every time a component becomes obsolete. Currently, the company holds an inventory of more than $100 million in obsolete electronics, some of which will not be used for a decade, if ever.
That sounds expensive! What's more, the issue of obsolescence is getting ever more serious, says the author Peter Sandborn, who is associate professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Maryland and a member of the university's Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering. In the 1960s, he says, the expected market availability for chips was between 20 and 25 years; now it's between two and five. Which means that by the time a chip is deployed, it's probably already obsolete.
Could this help explain why an increasing number of telecoms network equipment manufacturers are turning to FPGAs, where the value lies not in the physical part but in the software put on it? An increasing number of systems vendors seem to be crowing about the time and money spent on developing their own ASICs — are they doing this so they can control the availability of the product? If so, that would seem to be a nail in the coffin for developers of high-end communications ICs.
