fibresystems.org blog

« Day 1: WDM Cannes re-emerges in Nice | Main | WDM Nice: Rough Travel Guide to 100G »

Day 2: WDM admires the view to 100G

By Mark Lum, independent telecoms consultant

Another fresh and sunny morning and a short ride on Nice’s next-gen ligne d’azur tram brings me to the Acropolis from my sea-front hotel next to the Marche des Fleurs. It’s difficult to juggle my diary duty with chairing duty today, but I can first bring you some notes from yesterday afternoon.

From IDC, we hear that 40G network systems have developed though no fewer than four generations of subsystem technology since 1999 (those with good memories may also remember Nortel’s 80G demonstration at ITU’s Telecom 1999, a 2x40G system). A decade further on, and we witness at least a handful of live 40G traffic links, mostly in the US, whilst 10G deployments are still increasing.

And as for 100G deployments? There is much talk that 2012 will be the year — but realising that’s just over 2 years away, perhaps some collective optimism is at work. We learn that 40G transponder prices are, even now, no better than 4x10G (itself a decreasing target), and I feel it will surely be many years before real economy of scale can be provided at 100G. However, one vendor boldly shows its forecast of 100G deployment exceeding 40G as early as 2012. Tune in to WDM 2012 to find out how things have really progressed!

I quote from www.provence-hideaway.com:

“The Grande Corniche [from Nice to Menton via Monaco] was built under Napoleon’s reign and pretty much follows the Roman Aurelian Way. One would wish there were more belvederes with parking facilities, because you want to stop at every turn and admire the views, which extend both seaward and inland. Alas, there are few places where you can stop. Be careful, it is the favourite playground of Formula 1 wannabes, bikers with no fear and sightseeing tourists creeping along in their cars — a potent mixture”!

The similarity with 100G network evolution is surely uncanny (excepting that few fibre networks will have been built in Napoleon’s time). WDM is playing the role of sightseeing tourist as the majority of delegates attends the packed standing-room only “100G Showcase”, whilst I wonder if anyone is left in the eminently worthy parallel stream. I’ll have a rough guide in a separate 100G diary special.

Moving forward in time to this morning, and I encourage the conference to search for economy of scale in optical networks. With internet traffic doubling approx. every 18 months according to several incumbents, we as an industry need to figure out the best solution. I suggest that upgrading to 40G at a cost of 4x10G is hardly a convincing business case — especially if associated traffic revenue is either declining, or non-existent in the first place. And with 10G volume cost reduction just hitting its stride, perhaps 10G will be the real sweet spot for economic high-volume networking for many years to come?

Swisscom presented its strategic plan to phase out its very first SDH network, installed in the early 1990’s, and replace it with a next-gen SDH/OTH integrated network. After 20+ operational years, I expect many operators will similarly be looking to replace their original SDH infrastructure in the next five years, so there should be plenty of opportunity for new architectures and network build to handle future traffic projections.

A somewhat abbreviated diary today, and I also need to catch up with highlights from the FibreSystems Europe seminar. Tune in tomorrow!

Posted by Pauline Rigby on June 24, 2009 6:00 PM | Permalink